Will Databricks have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $559 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$559.5

Combined PnL

-$2.89

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$559.42

Total Shares560

Combined PnL+$1.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.08

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$4.16

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.3¢	$129.01	$129.77	+$0.76	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.88	$124.88	-$0	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.8¢	$109.8	$109.87	+$0.07	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$44.74	$44.74	-$0	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.56	$31.63	+$0.07	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	-$0	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$27.21	$24.98	+$0.13	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$24.39	$24.61	+$0.22	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.01	$9.01	-$0	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.82	$0.05	-$1.77	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$2.39	26% 506-1406 (1912)

Lucerys

Invested

$129.01

Value

$129.77

PnL

+$0.76

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

graynotebook19

Invested

$124.88

Value

$124.88

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

godblessme2026

Invested

$109.8

Value

$109.87

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$44.74

Value

$44.74

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.56

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$0.07

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$27.21

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$24.39

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.77

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.39

Record

26%

506-1406 (1912)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.