Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$444.46

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.3¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,242

Combined PnL+$535.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5

Total Shares512

Combined PnL-$90.83

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

310h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93.7¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$221.22	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
DO donthackme	Noavg 96.1¢	$600.6	$618.56	+$17.96	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 97.1¢	$318	$321.39	+$43.09	42% 10352-14389 (24741)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	No	$189.04	$189.04	+$19.21	50% 135-137 (272)
ME merod	Noavg 98.4¢	$152.52	$153.45	+$0.93	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 98.9¢	$153.36	$153.45	+$0.09	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 98.6¢	$128.16	$128.7	+$0.54	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.6¢	$116.75	$117.63	+$0.88	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 95.7¢	$107.42	$110.05	+$2.62	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$79.08	$79.2	+$0.24	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$59.27	$59.48	+$0.68	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99¢	$59.4	$59.4	+$0	33% 454-938 (1392)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$23.85	$19.81	+$222.92	38% 3070-4952 (8022)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.41	$4.32	+$4.91	52% 6272-5822 (12094)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$2	$2	-$1.42	55% 3141-2524 (5665)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.86	$1.55	-$0.31	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.77	$0.77	-$0.55	6% 14-231 (245)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$488.63	$0.68	-$88.54	36% 2018-3600 (5618)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,948.06

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$221.22

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

donthackme

Invested

$600.6

Value

$618.56

PnL

+$17.96

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

influenz.eth

Invested

$318

Value

$321.39

PnL

+$43.09

Record

42%

10352-14389 (24741)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$189.04

Value

$189.04

PnL

+$19.21

Record

50%

135-137 (272)

merod

Invested

$152.52

Value

$153.45

PnL

+$0.93

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

smallreceipt

Invested

$153.36

Value

$153.45

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

godblessme2026

Invested

$128.16

Value

$128.7

PnL

+$0.54

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$116.75

Value

$117.63

PnL

+$0.88

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$107.42

Value

$110.05

PnL

+$2.62

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.08

Value

$79.2

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$59.27

Value

$59.48

PnL

+$0.68

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.4

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

454-938 (1392)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$23.85

Value

$19.81

PnL

+$222.92

Record

38%

3070-4952 (8022)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$4.91

Record

52%

6272-5822 (12094)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1.42

Record

55%

3141-2524 (5665)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.31

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.55

Record

14-231 (245)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$488.63

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$88.54

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

310h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.