Will Dani win the GMGN GGC Season 1 Grand Final?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 64¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 18

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$366.49

Combined PnL

$141.99

Smart Money Entry

29.8¢ → 63.5¢

+113% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$303.49

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$160.83

Yes5 traders

Total Value$63

Total Shares173

Combined PnL-$18.83

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 52.9¢	$125.86	$151.02	+$25.17	67% 44-22 (66)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 6¢	$14.1	$149.23	+$135.13	— 2-15 (17)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 49.9¢	$50.13	$36.7	-$13.44	—
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$13.02	$11.32	-$1.71	— 1-1 (2)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$8.8	$7.3	-$1.5	— 0-1 (1)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$9.8	$7.3	-$2.5	— 0-3 (3)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.7	$3.24	+$0.54	42% 16-22 (38)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.08	$0.38	+$0.31	77% 53-16 (69)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$125.86

Value

$151.02

PnL

+$25.17

Record

67%

44-22 (66)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$14.1

Value

$149.23

PnL

+$135.13

Record

—

2-15 (17)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.13

Value

$36.7

PnL

-$13.44

Record

—

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.02

Value

$11.32

PnL

-$1.71

Record

—

1-1 (2)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$1.5

Record

—

0-1 (1)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$2.5

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.54

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.31

Record

77%

53-16 (69)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.