Will "Cuffem's Team" win Nozempic 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $504 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$504.38
$38.87
69.4¢ → 75.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxx | Noavg 69¢ | $473.18 | $288.73 | +$43.98 | — 2-1 (3) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $65.65 | $65 | -$0.65 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 LornaPredictsARB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $63.4 | $61.16 | -$2.23 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66¢ | $33 | $37.75 | +$4.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $30.4 | $23.41 | -$6.98 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $55.19 | $58.29 | +$3.1 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.3¢ | $29.69 | $33.3 | +$3.61 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25¢ | $25.5 | $24.99 | -$0.51 | |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $35.67 | $31.21 | -$4.46 | 24% 82-265 (347) |
Invested
$473.18
Value
$288.73
PnL
+$43.98
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$65.65
Value
$65
PnL
-$0.65
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
LornaPredictsARB<$100Invested
$63.4
Value
$61.16
PnL
-$2.23
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.19
Value
$58.29
PnL
+$3.1
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.67
Value
$31.21
PnL
-$4.46
Record
24%
82-265 (347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.