Will Cuffem lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 67¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 13

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$589.78

Combined PnL

$31.31

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 67¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$431.35

Total Shares629

Combined PnL+$43.13

No3 traders

Total Value$19.2

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$11.82

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Relaccsed	Yesavg 59.2¢	$330.42	$373.86	+$43.44	— 3-1 (4)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$123.72	$139.23	+$15.52	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.5¢	$81.41	$77.82	-$3.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.2¢	$42.31	$61.41	+$19.1
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$31	$30.69	-$0.31	— 1-10 (11)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$26.8	$26.8	+$0	23% 80-263 (343)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$12.92	$6.4	-$6.52	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$28.6	$6.4	-$3.9	— 0-10 (10)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$7.8	$6.4	-$1.4	— 1-9 (10)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$330.42

Value

$373.86

PnL

+$43.44

Record

—

3-1 (4)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$123.72

Value

$139.23

PnL

+$15.52

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

Both legs:

No$81.4133.5¢-$3.59

Yes$42.3146.2¢+$19.1

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$0.31

Record

—

1-10 (11)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.8

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$6.52

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$28.6

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$3.9

Record

—

0-10 (10)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.