Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $227 held · ends Jun 19, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Jun 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$226.67

Combined PnL

-$249.32

Smart Money Entry

16.3¢ → 6.5¢

-60% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$190.31

Total Shares2,719

Combined PnL-$253.89

No2 traders

Total Value$36.35

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$4.57

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$400	$140	-$270	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$26.68	$24.77	-$1.9	41% 2125-3050 (5175)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.73	$19.25	+$14.52	39% 2901-4499 (7400)
DavidShekel<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$18.05	$18.6	+$0.7	38% 656-1061 (1717)
tomatosauce2<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$13.89	$17.75	+$3.87	81% 1144-275 (1419)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$5.93	$5.93	+$3.49	67% 27463-13818 (41281)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.35	-$0	58% 21212-15411 (36623)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$140

PnL

-$270

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.68

Value

$24.77

PnL

-$1.9

Record

41%

2125-3050 (5175)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$14.52

Record

39%

2901-4499 (7400)

DavidShekel<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

656-1061 (1717)

tomatosauce2<$100

Invested

$13.89

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$3.87

Record

81%

1144-275 (1419)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$3.49

Record

67%

27463-13818 (41281)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

21212-15411 (36623)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.