Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.9¢ · $404 held · ends Oct 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$403.96
$191.39
1¢ → 1.9¢
+91% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoffeeDespiserCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $135.71 | $292.5 | +$156.79 | 50% 870-859 (1729) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $55.52 | $69.3 | +$13.78 | 73% 11084-4092 (15176) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $8.62 | $19.01 | +$10.39 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.61 | $9.65 | +$5.04 | 38% 2935-4692 (7627) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.9 | $5.86 | +$2.96 | 36% 1887-3307 (5194) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $2.15 | $3.82 | +$1.67 | 63% 5411-3152 (8563) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $3.06 | $3.82 | +$0.76 | 42% 1898-2621 (4519) |
CoffeeDespiserCTRInvested
$135.71
Value
$292.5
PnL
+$156.79
Record
50%
870-859 (1729)
Invested
$55.52
Value
$69.3
PnL
+$13.78
Record
73%
11084-4092 (15176)
Invested
$8.62
Value
$19.01
PnL
+$10.39
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$5.04
Record
38%
2935-4692 (7627)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$2.96
Record
36%
1887-3307 (5194)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$3.82
PnL
+$1.67
Record
63%
5411-3152 (8563)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.82
PnL
+$0.76
Record
42%
1898-2621 (4519)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.