Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Creighton win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $512 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$512.28

Combined PnL

$489.32

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$512.28

Total Shares2,388

Combined PnL+$489.32

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.3	$319.18	+$306.88	39% 1093-1684 (2777)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.88	$100.75	+$96.87	18% 855-3975 (4830)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.31	$59.89	+$57.58	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.37	$9.65	+$9.28	17% 92-443 (535)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.33	$8.58	+$8.25	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.25	$6.59	+$6.34	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$4.29	+$4.12	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$1.92	$1.92	+$0	36% 286-506 (792)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$1.43	$1.43	+$0	— 1-6 (7)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$12.3

Value

$319.18

PnL

+$306.88

Record

39%

1093-1684 (2777)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$3.88

Value

$100.75

PnL

+$96.87

Record

18%

855-3975 (4830)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.31

Value

$59.89

PnL

+$57.58

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$9.28

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$8.25

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$6.34

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$4.12

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-6 (7)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.