Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $838 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$838.16
$195.04
42.2¢ → 55.5¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 39.3¢ | $398.81 | $443.3 | +$196.99 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 probability | Noavg 44.3¢ | $127.08 | $166.37 | +$38.41 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $226.92 | $105.25 | -$54.62 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $56.97 | $73.24 | +$16.26 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $52 | $50 | -$2 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
TimeTravelerInvested
$398.81
Value
$443.3
PnL
+$196.99
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
probabilityInvested
$127.08
Value
$166.37
PnL
+$38.41
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$226.92
Value
$105.25
PnL
-$54.62
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$56.97
Value
$73.24
PnL
+$16.26
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$52
Value
$50
PnL
-$2
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.