Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 20¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$274.98
-$5.13
Research grade
AvoidNo at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2ARB<$100 | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $236.24 | $192.4 | -$1.55 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $123.3 | $134.75 | +$8.49 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22.2¢ | $63.94 | $57.65 | -$10.05 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $59.45 | $56.83 | -$1.62 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.9¢ | $17.8 | $13.17 | -$4.63 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $5.46 | $7.8 | +$2.34 | 38% 3334-5399 (8733) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $8.12 | $3.38 | -$1.63 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $0.98 | $1.4 | +$0.42 | 79% 449-119 (568) |
Invested
$236.24
Value
$192.4
PnL
-$1.55
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.45
Value
$56.83
PnL
-$1.62
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$13.17
PnL
-$4.63
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$2.34
Record
38%
3334-5399 (8733)
Invested
$8.12
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$1.63
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
79%
449-119 (568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.