Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% or more in October?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $272 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$271.78
$1.18
90.1¢ → 90.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $81.04 | $82.94 | +$1.9 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $69 | $66.07 | -$2.93 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $54.06 | $55.29 | +$1.23 | 40% 1458-2159 (3617) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $36.64 | $36.86 | +$0.22 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $29.86 | $30.63 | +$0.76 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$81.04
Value
$82.94
PnL
+$1.9
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$69
Value
$66.07
PnL
-$2.93
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$54.06
Value
$55.29
PnL
+$1.23
Record
40%
1458-2159 (3617)
Invested
$36.64
Value
$36.86
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$29.86
Value
$30.63
PnL
+$0.76
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.