Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in October?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$176.25
$0.26
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $82.92 | $94.04 | +$11.12 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.6¢ | $59 | $48.47 | -$10.53 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $23.92 | $45.58 | +$21.66 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $20.29 | $32.53 | +$12.24 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $8.7 | $13.95 | +$5.25 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $42.07 | $9.98 | -$4.89 | 3% 1-32 (33) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $6 | $9.3 | +$3.3 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $8.7 | -$5.1 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $5.8 | -$6.6 | 12% 25-176 (201) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $1.94 | -$3.94 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
Invested
$82.92
Value
$94.04
PnL
+$11.12
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$20.29
Value
$32.53
PnL
+$12.24
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$5.25
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
Invested
$42.07
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$4.89
Record
3%
1-32 (33)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$3.3
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$5.1
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$12.4
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$6.6
Record
12%
25-176 (201)
Invested
$12
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$3.94
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.