Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in October?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 65¢ · $204 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$203.54
-$13.42
65.6¢ → 64.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67¢ | $133.32 | $122.42 | -$10.9 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $46.26 | $42.82 | -$3.44 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $35.35 | $26.55 | -$1 | — 0-10 (10) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $6.96 | $8.58 | +$1.62 | — 12-6 (18) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $5.55 | $3 | +$0.3 | 67% 3785-1901 (5686) |
Invested
$133.32
Value
$122.42
PnL
-$10.9
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$46.26
Value
$42.82
PnL
-$3.44
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$35.35
Value
$26.55
PnL
-$1
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$6.96
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$1.62
Record
—
12-6 (18)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
67%
3785-1901 (5686)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.