Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in October?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$132.75
-$11.63
90.8¢ → 96¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $54.9 | $57.6 | +$2.7 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $41.41 | $41 | -$0.41 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $24.25 | $24.51 | +$0.26 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $12.48 | $5.61 | -$6.87 | 56% 48-38 (86) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $5.66 | $2.14 | -$3.52 | 12% 25-176 (201) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $5.67 | $1.89 | -$3.78 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
Invested
$54.9
Value
$57.6
PnL
+$2.7
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$41.41
Value
$41
PnL
-$0.41
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$24.25
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$0.26
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$12.48
Value
$5.61
PnL
-$6.87
Record
56%
48-38 (86)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.66
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$3.52
Record
12%
25-176 (201)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$3.78
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.