Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.6% or more in October?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$14.94

Combined PnL

-$85.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$8.37

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.57

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$85.02

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.38	$8.37	-$0.01	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$10.61	$5.1	-$5.51	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$61.57	$1.08	-$60.49	39% 1083-1660 (2743)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$8.53	$0.15	-$8.38	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$6.58	$0.12	-$6.46	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.53	$0.07	-$0.47	31% 146-327 (473)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$1.46	$0.05	-$1.41	13% 76-495 (571)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$63.65	$0.01	-$2.17	61% 1410-891 (2301)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$0.14	$0	-$0.14	12% 20-144 (164)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.38

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$0.01

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.61

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$5.51

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.57

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$60.49

Record

39%

1083-1660 (2743)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$8.38

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.58

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$6.46

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.47

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.41

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.65

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.17

Record

61%

1410-891 (2301)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

PnL

-$0.14

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.