Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% in October?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 13¢ · $35 held · ends Nov 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$35.29
-$3.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.91 | $17.34 | -$2.57 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $16.61 | $16.63 | +$0.02 | 27% 923-2513 (3436) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.03 | $0.99 | +$0.96 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.27 | $0.18 | -$1.09 | 62% 1321-793 (2114) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $0.82 | $0.08 | -$0.74 | 53% 29-26 (55) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.1 | $0.07 | -$0.03 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.91
Value
$17.34
PnL
-$2.57
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$16.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
923-2513 (3436)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.96
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$1.09
Record
62%
1321-793 (2114)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
29-26 (55)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.03
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.