Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in October?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 75¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$200.17
-$13.83
84.8¢ → 75¢
-12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $66.39 | $61.59 | -$4.8 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $43.2 | $36.96 | -$6.24 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $38.64 | $35.42 | -$3.22 | — 1-18 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $23.97 | $24.18 | +$0.21 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $21.25 | $19.25 | -$2 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $16.04 | $12.87 | -$3.17 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.5 | $9.9 | +$5.4 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$66.39
Value
$61.59
PnL
-$4.8
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$43.2
Value
$36.96
PnL
-$6.24
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
Invested
$38.64
Value
$35.42
PnL
-$3.22
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$23.97
Value
$24.18
PnL
+$0.21
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$19.25
PnL
-$2
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$16.04
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$3.17
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$5.4
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.