Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in October?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$81.39
$2.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $30.91 | $30.4 | -$0.51 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $15.7 | $19.27 | +$3.57 | — 4-3 (7) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $11.6 | -$1.6 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $22.3 | $9.85 | -$1.43 | — 1-9 (10) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $5.68 | $9.69 | +$4.01 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.86 | $0.58 | -$1.08 | — 0-10 (10) |
Invested
$30.91
Value
$30.4
PnL
-$0.51
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$15.7
Value
$19.27
PnL
+$3.57
Record
—
4-3 (7)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$1.6
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$22.3
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$1.43
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$4.01
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$1.08
Record
—
0-10 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.