Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% or less in October?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$149.22

Combined PnL

-$74.96

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$140.85

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$0.24

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.37

Total Shares679

Combined PnL-$74.72

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$82.94	$82.7	-$0.23	29% 232-564 (796)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$27.84	$27.86	+$0.02	61% 1409-891 (2300)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$21.96	$21.94	-$0.02	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$8.36	$8.35	-$0.01	34% 263-518 (781)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$11.15	$5.19	-$5.96	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$61.57	$2.16	-$59.42	39% 1083-1659 (2742)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.7	$0.72	-$0.98	13% 76-495 (571)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$8.53	$0.3	-$8.23	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$0.14	$0.01	-$0.14	12% 20-144 (164)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$82.94

Value

$82.7

PnL

-$0.23

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$27.84

Value

$27.86

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

1409-891 (2300)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$21.96

Value

$21.94

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.15

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$5.96

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.57

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$59.42

Record

39%

1083-1659 (2742)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.98

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$8.23

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.14

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.