Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 11

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$60.22

Combined PnL

-$2.86

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$58.37

Total Shares62

Combined PnL-$0.58

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.8

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$2.28

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$28.95	$28.08	-$0.87	11% 35-270 (305)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$11.15	$11.57	+$0.42	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$7.25	$7.21	-$0.04	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$5.95	$5.9	-$0.05	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$5.66	$5.62	-$0.05	57% 56-43 (99)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4	$1.2	-$2.8	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.6	+$0.52	17% 10-48 (58)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.95

Value

$28.08

PnL

-$0.87

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$0.42

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.25

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$0.04

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$2.8

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.52

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.