Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in October?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$204.61
$6.8
66.7¢ → 68¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 66.4¢ | $143.98 | $147.52 | +$3.54 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
 perfectnostalgia<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $40.3 | $40.3 | +$0 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $8.7 | $10.78 | +$2.09 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $10.9 | $6 | +$1.17 | — 3-6 (9) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.