Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$61.48

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$551.83

Total Shares1,298

Combined PnL+$66.18

No6 traders

Total Value$244.32

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$4.7

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$43	$551.83	+$66.18	45% 384-477 (861)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$278.57	$321.23	+$42.66	35% 16978-31455 (48433)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.1¢	$122.1	$167.4	+$45.53
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$170.55	$153.83	-$2.86
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$85.88	$83.62	-$2.26	45% 2377-2944 (5321)
GR grinder1011<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$77.51	$79.2	+$0.31	37% 117-196 (313)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$57.2	$44.8	+$0	42% 1798-2479 (4277)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 57¢	$13.68	$13.44	-$0.24	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 57¢	$11.97	$11.76	-$0.21	30% 2194-5073 (7267)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.8	$11.5	-$2.3	50% 1279-1291 (2570)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$43

Value

$551.83

PnL

+$66.18

Record

45%

384-477 (861)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$278.57

Value

$321.23

PnL

+$42.66

Record

35%

16978-31455 (48433)

Both legs:

Yes$122.132.1¢+$45.53

No$170.5562.1¢-$2.86

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$85.88

Value

$83.62

PnL

-$2.26

Record

45%

2377-2944 (5321)

grinder1011<$100

Invested

$77.51

Value

$79.2

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

117-196 (313)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$57.2

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1798-2479 (4277)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.21

Record

30%

2194-5073 (7267)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$2.3

Record

50%

1279-1291 (2570)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.