Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$119.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KnureKnumeCTR | Noavg 51.4¢ | $1.3K | $959.19 | -$326.67 | 48% 395-431 (826) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $720.94 | $710.08 | -$4.23 | 26% 281-782 (1063) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $296.3 | $437.79 | +$143.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.1¢ | $419.57 | $272.29 | -$147.29 | |
RU rustin | Yesavg 46¢ | $292.6 | $395.34 | +$102.73 | 48% 474-512 (986) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $100.82 | $149.7 | +$103.14 | 36% 14863-26977 (41840) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $1.94 | $2.78 | +$0.84 | 42% 1675-2291 (3966) |
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$1,309.37
Value
$959.19
PnL
-$326.67
Record
48%
395-431 (826)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$720.94
Value
$710.08
PnL
-$4.23
Record
26%
281-782 (1063)
Both legs:
Invested
$292.6
Value
$395.34
PnL
+$102.73
Record
48%
474-512 (986)
Invested
$100.82
Value
$149.7
PnL
+$103.14
Record
36%
14863-26977 (41840)
Invested
$1.94
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.84
Record
42%
1675-2291 (3966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.