Will Congress override 3+ Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $68 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$68.33
$0.25
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $17.6 | +$1.2 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $17.6 | +$1 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $18.76 | $17.4 | -$1.36 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $12.95 | $13.21 | +$0.26 | — 0-12 (12) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $3.37 | $2.53 | -$0.84 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.6
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$1
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$18.76
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$1.36
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$0.26
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.84
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.