Will Congress override 0 Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 53¢ · $830 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$830.39

Combined PnL

$57.44

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$389.51

Total Shares735

Combined PnL+$71.64

No8 traders

Total Value$168.57

Total Shares291

Combined PnL-$14.2

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 44.2¢	$357.87	$389.51	+$71.64	— 4-15 (19)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$271.22	$272.31	+$1.1	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$178.62	$150.41	-$28.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.3¢	$92.6	$121.9	+$29.3
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$55.84	$50.08	-$5.76	— 1-10 (11)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$42.6	$38.8	-$3.8	17% 12-60 (72)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$33.46	$20	-$0.2	— 1-9 (10)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$34.69	$17.39	-$4.04	— 0-12 (12)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$14.1	$14.1	+$0	11% 35-271 (306)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	35% 2910-5328 (8238)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.4	-$0.4	52% 5320-4824 (10144)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$357.87

Value

$389.51

PnL

+$71.64

Record

—

4-15 (19)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$271.22

Value

$272.31

PnL

+$1.1

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

Both legs:

No$178.6255.8¢-$28.2

Yes$92.640.3¢+$29.3

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$55.84

Value

$50.08

PnL

-$5.76

Record

—

1-10 (11)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$3.8

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$33.46

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

1-9 (10)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$34.69

Value

$17.39

PnL

-$4.04

Record

—

0-12 (12)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0

Record

11%

35-271 (306)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.0%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.