Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$97.87

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 92.3¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,140

Combined PnL+$91.08

Yes6 traders

Total Value$116.34

Total Shares2,770

Combined PnL+$6.79

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

714h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Noavg 89¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$65.33	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93.5¢	$275.35	$282.01	+$6.66	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95.3¢	$247.67	$249.08	+$1.41	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
BU Burkilota1	Noavg 88.3¢	$132.46	$140.13	+$7.67	63% 712-413 (1125)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$99.18	$97.86	-$1.32	41% 2018-2859 (4877)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$92.57	$94.29	+$1.72	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 92¢	$496.48	$48.2	+$8.15	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$42.25	$42.37	+$0.12	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$4.89	$8.11	+$3.21	42% 1516-2129 (3645)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 96¢	$8.03	$8.01	-$0.02	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$5.25	$5.07	-$0.18	53% 8223-7324 (15547)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yes	$2.49	$2.49	+$0.64	24% 109-350 (459)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.38	$2.19	-$0.06	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$41.68	$2.17	+$0.03	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$2.46	$0.63	+$4.5	48% 1884-2013 (3897)

purplegatto

Invested

$1,097.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$65.33

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$275.35

Value

$282.01

PnL

+$6.66

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

smallreceipt

Invested

$247.67

Value

$249.08

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Burkilota1

Invested

$132.46

Value

$140.13

PnL

+$7.67

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.18

Value

$97.86

PnL

-$1.32

Record

41%

2018-2859 (4877)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$92.57

Value

$94.29

PnL

+$1.72

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$496.48

Value

$48.2

PnL

+$8.15

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

korda77<$100

Invested

$42.25

Value

$42.37

PnL

+$0.12

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$8.11

PnL

+$3.21

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

merod<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.64

Record

24%

109-350 (459)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$41.68

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$4.5

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

714h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.