Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$8.4K
-$304.25
56.3¢ → 53.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE SeniorLaghettoARB<$100 | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $6.3K | $5.2K | +$384.79 | 70% 400-175 (575) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$9.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$394.3 | |
 Moond | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$97.6 | 69% 1136-512 (1648) |
 alanhuttonCTR | Noavg 47.6¢ | $1.1K | $747.64 | -$238.36 | 68% 323-152 (475) |
 Zaratustra | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $2.0K | $565.6 | +$0.45 | 62% 343-208 (551) |
FB fbetCTR | Noavg 53.9¢ | $471.5 | $399 | -$72.5 | 67% 16-8 (24) |
VI Vitaaalya | Yesavg 59.4¢ | $1.5K | $156.19 | -$123.47 | 70% 240-102 (342) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $142.49 | $146.35 | +$3.85 | 61% 130-83 (213) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 49.3¢ | $264.29 | $3.1 | +$28.18 | 36% 15325-27398 (42723) |
Invested
$6,258.76
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$384.79
Record
70%
400-175 (575)
Both legs:
MoondInvested
$1,075.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$97.6
Record
69%
1136-512 (1648)
alanhuttonCTRInvested
$1,138.47
Value
$747.64
PnL
-$238.36
Record
68%
323-152 (475)
ZaratustraInvested
$1,995.58
Value
$565.6
PnL
+$0.45
Record
62%
343-208 (551)
Invested
$471.5
Value
$399
PnL
-$72.5
Record
67%
16-8 (24)
Invested
$1,467.34
Value
$156.19
PnL
-$123.47
Record
70%
240-102 (342)
Invested
$142.49
Value
$146.35
PnL
+$3.85
Record
61%
130-83 (213)
Invested
$264.29
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$28.18
Record
36%
15325-27398 (42723)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.