Will "Collision Course" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $277 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$277.45
-$36.73
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $89.88 | $89.87 | -$0.01 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.92 | $84.92 | +$0 | 28% 1103-2780 (3883) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.89 | $39.96 | +$0.08 | 42% 1694-2332 (4026) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $36.1 | $36.1 | +$0 | 31% 1122-2474 (3596) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.37 | $15.37 | -$0.01 | 47% 1242-1391 (2633) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.17 | $10.16 | -$0.01 | 60% 874-593 (1467) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $44.63 | $0.43 | -$14.68 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $26.9 | $0.35 | -$11.54 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $8.99 | $0.28 | -$8.7 | 42% 5212-7125 (12337) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $35.11 | $0.01 | -$1.85 | 35% 3905-7251 (11156) |
Invested
$89.88
Value
$89.87
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
Invested
$84.92
Value
$84.92
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
1103-2780 (3883)
Invested
$39.89
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.08
Record
42%
1694-2332 (4026)
Invested
$36.1
Value
$36.1
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
1122-2474 (3596)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$15.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
1242-1391 (2633)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$0.01
Record
60%
874-593 (1467)
Invested
$44.63
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$14.68
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
Invested
$26.9
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$11.54
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.99
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$8.7
Record
42%
5212-7125 (12337)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$35.11
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.85
Record
35%
3905-7251 (11156)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
god83743894
No — $89.87
graynotebook19
No — $84.92
haveagoodday
No — $39.96
mildwindow27
No — $36.1
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $15.37
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $10.16
donthackme
CTRYes — $0.43
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0.35
balthazar
CTRYes — $0.28
Lucerys
CTRYes — $0.01