Will "Collision Course" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$155.59
$0.17
97.5¢ → 97.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $68.36 | $69.2 | +$0.84 | 41% 168-244 (412) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.28 | -$0.54 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $28.33 | $28.44 | +$0.11 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $16.55 | $16.53 | -$0.02 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $12.37 | $12.14 | -$0.22 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
dips.<$100Invested
$68.36
Value
$69.2
PnL
+$0.84
Record
41%
168-244 (412)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.28
PnL
-$0.54
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$28.44
PnL
+$0.11
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$16.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.37
Value
$12.14
PnL
-$0.22
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.