Will "Collision Course" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$148.03
-$11.57
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.88 | $39.92 | +$0.04 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.75 | $39.62 | -$0.13 | 30% 253-582 (835) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $30.42 | $30.3 | -$0.12 | 53% 7113-6221 (13334) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.82 | $29.85 | +$0.03 | 42% 1635-2289 (3924) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.98 | $6.95 | -$0.03 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.63 | $1.04 | -$7.58 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $31.87 | $0.23 | -$3 | 27% 1031-2734 (3765) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.89 | $0.11 | -$0.79 | 43% 5103-6732 (11835) |
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$39.62
PnL
-$0.13
Record
30%
253-582 (835)
Invested
$30.42
Value
$30.3
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
7113-6221 (13334)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.03
Record
42%
1635-2289 (3924)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$6.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$7.58
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$31.87
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$3
Record
27%
1031-2734 (3765)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.79
Record
43%
5103-6732 (11835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.