Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 54¢ · $748 held · ends Nov 8

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$748.23

Combined PnL

$257.26

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 53.6¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$356.32

Total Shares482

Combined PnL+$123.81

No6 traders

Total Value$246.82

Total Shares532

Combined PnL+$133.45

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 55.2¢	$165.73	$216	+$58.5	62% 388-235 (623)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 54.8¢	$158.03	$145.09	+$20.39	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.8¢	$93.94	$91.82	-$3.73
└ No leg	Noavg 30.9¢	$35.5	$53.27	+$24.12
NostdamCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$36	$92.8	+$56.8	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 27.4¢	$54.73	$92.7	+$37.97	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 37.8¢	$41.78	$79.57	+$37.79	26% 7407-21213 (28620)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$61.84	$47.88	+$33.82	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 33.6¢	$12.38	$40.86	+$17.21	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$4.19	$16.57	+$12.38	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$68.55	$8.71	+$1.4	27% 659-1763 (2422)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$5.39	$3.32	-$2.06	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.62	$2.39	+$1.77	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.66	$2.35	+$1.69	38% 2430-3890 (6320)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$165.73

Value

$216

PnL

+$58.5

Record

62%

388-235 (623)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$158.03

Value

$145.09

PnL

+$20.39

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Both legs:

Yes$93.9454.8¢-$3.73

No$35.530.9¢+$24.12

NostdamCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$92.8

PnL

+$56.8

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$54.73

Value

$92.7

PnL

+$37.97

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.78

Value

$79.57

PnL

+$37.79

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$61.84

Value

$47.88

PnL

+$33.82

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.38

Value

$40.86

PnL

+$17.21

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.19

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$12.38

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$68.55

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$1.4

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.39

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$2.06

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$1.77

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$1.69

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.8%

53.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.