Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 99¢ · $364 held · ended Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$363.72

Combined PnL

-$10.57

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 98.8¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$360.67

Total Shares361

Combined PnL+$4.98

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.05

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$15.55

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.3¢	$145.77	$122.87	+$0	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$94.95	$99.8	+$5.05	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.88	-$0.06	48% 11465-12267 (23732)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.9	$31.91	+$0.01	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$33.48	$25.95	+$0	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.23	$15.21	-$0.02	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.05	$5.05	+$0	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$2.57	$1.61	-$0.96	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$3.85	$0.42	-$3.43	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.11	$0.39	+$0.28	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.11	$0.39	+$0.28	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$11.94	$0.2	-$11.74	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.04	+$0.01	44% 2445-3051 (5496)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$145.77

Value

$122.87

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$94.95

Value

$99.8

PnL

+$5.05

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

11465-12267 (23732)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$33.48

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.96

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$3.43

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.94

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$11.74

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.