Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 53¢ · $748 held · ends Nov 8

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$747.93

Combined PnL

$23.67

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 53.2¢

-24% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$660.9

Total Shares946

Combined PnL-$15.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$87.03

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$39.61

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e	Noavg 70.1¢	$127.04	$163.89	-$16.57	52% 314-285 (599)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.4¢	$119.23	$119.28	+$0.05	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 61.4¢	$112.68	$97.84	-$14.85	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$93.58	$89.3	-$2.34	27% 659-1763 (2422)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 88.5¢	$172.29	$65.72	-$38.94	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$11.32	$46.46	+$35.14	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
HA haveagoodday<$100	No	$34.26	$34.26	+$0	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$71.52	$33.11	+$55.09	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$23.11	$28.33	+$5.22	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$31.23	$22.84	+$0	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$16.2	$17.22	+$1.24	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$67.54	$12.29	+$0.36	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$9.27	$8.83	-$0.43	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.8¢	$3.73	$3.41	-$0.32	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0.01	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$2.55	$2.56	+$0.01	47% 2105-2397 (4502)

0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e

Invested

$127.04

Value

$163.89

PnL

-$16.57

Record

52%

314-285 (599)

cigarettes

Invested

$119.23

Value

$119.28

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$112.68

Value

$97.84

PnL

-$14.85

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$93.58

Value

$89.3

PnL

-$2.34

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$172.29

Value

$65.72

PnL

-$38.94

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$46.46

PnL

+$35.14

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$34.26

Value

$34.26

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$71.52

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$55.09

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.11

Value

$28.33

PnL

+$5.22

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.23

Value

$22.84

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$17.22

PnL

+$1.24

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$0.36

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.27

Value

$8.83

PnL

-$0.43

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.32

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.4%

53.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$80.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

180.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.