Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $149 held · ends Dec 1

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$148.57

Combined PnL

$5.55

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$86.67

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$6.43

No2 traders

Total Value$11.18

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.88

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$60.44	$65.73	+$5.29	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Noavg 47¢	$53	$50.72	-$2.28	— 1-10 (11)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$26.21	$26.21	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$26.79	$24.51	-$2.28
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$19.8	$20.94	+$1.14	56% 61-48 (109)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.6	$8.6	-$1	— 1-9 (10)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.46	$2.58	+$0.12	35% 2910-5328 (8238)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.44

Value

$65.73

PnL

+$5.29

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$50.72

PnL

-$2.28

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

Yes$26.2154¢+$0

No$26.7947¢-$2.28

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$1.14

Record

56%

61-48 (109)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$1

Record

—

1-9 (10)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.0%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$69.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

169.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.