Will Claude go down 5-7 times in November 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 79¢ · $243 held · ends Dec 1

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$242.6

Combined PnL

$15.32

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 78.5¢

+10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$228.84

Total Shares290

Combined PnL+$19.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.76

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$3.72

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$75.59	$84.77	+$9.18	41% 3108-4463 (7571)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 72¢	$29.69	$32.16	+$2.47	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$28.8	$31.2	+$2.4	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$23.55	+$0.15	— 2-14 (16)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.6	$23.4	+$1.8	27% 933-2514 (3447)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$14.78	$16.34	+$1.56	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$17.48	$13.76	-$3.72	49% 86-88 (174)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$7.8	+$0.9	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.92	$6.24	+$0.32	39% 1286-2003 (3289)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.12	$3.38	+$0.26	28% 522-1370 (1892)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$75.59

Value

$84.77

PnL

+$9.18

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$29.69

Value

$32.16

PnL

+$2.47

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

2-14 (16)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

27%

933-2514 (3447)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.78

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$1.56

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.48

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$3.72

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.9

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

39%

1286-2003 (3289)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.26

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.