Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 75% or higher?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.2K
$16.94
96.3¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$9.12 | — 5-1 (6) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 69.3¢ | $161.28 | $78.67 | +$24.6 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $38.58 | $26.79 | -$11.79 | — 3-4 (7) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $5.12 | $0.13 | -$4.99 | 41% 13-19 (32) |
viniiInvested
$1,080.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$9.12
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$161.28
Value
$78.67
PnL
+$24.6
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
Invested
$38.58
Value
$26.79
PnL
-$11.79
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$4.99
Record
41%
13-19 (32)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.