Will Claude Fable 5.2 debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 87¢ · $109 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$109.23
$2.26
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 87¢ | $420.04 | $66.45 | +$4.57 | 53% 29-26 (55) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $43.89 | $21 | -$0.21 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $8.65 | +$0.15 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $78.34 | $6.67 | -$0.38 | — 1-18 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.4¢ | $8.32 | $6.46 | -$1.86 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
HaradwaithInvested
$420.04
Value
$66.45
PnL
+$4.57
Record
53%
29-26 (55)
Invested
$43.89
Value
$21
PnL
-$0.21
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$78.34
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$0.38
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$6.46
PnL
-$1.86
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.