Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 85¢ · $944 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$943.68
$120.35
88.8¢ → 84.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 88¢ | $655.96 | $652.05 | -$3.9 | 56% 15285-11834 (27119) |
ST stupid22 | Yesavg 90.2¢ | $112.48 | $107.55 | -$12.66 | 94% 399-26 (425) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 13.2¢ | $133.78 | $94.54 | +$144.77 | 36% 15264-27350 (42614) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $94.93 | $85.15 | -$9.79 | 42% 5209-7140 (12349) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 9.8¢ | $2.45 | $4.38 | +$1.93 | 39% 1760-2801 (4561) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$655.96
Value
$652.05
PnL
-$3.9
Record
56%
15285-11834 (27119)
Invested
$112.48
Value
$107.55
PnL
-$12.66
Record
94%
399-26 (425)
Invested
$133.78
Value
$94.54
PnL
+$144.77
Record
36%
15264-27350 (42614)
Invested
$94.93
Value
$85.15
PnL
-$9.79
Record
42%
5209-7140 (12349)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$1.93
Record
39%
1760-2801 (4561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.