Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$20.62

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 86.4¢

-2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,499

Combined PnL-$30.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$19.5

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$10.32

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 89¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$24.85	56% 15850-12549 (28399)
ME merod	Noavg 86.7¢	$728.28	$725.76	-$2.52	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
KO korda77	Noavg 86.6¢	$420	$375.84	-$0.86	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88.6¢	$282.99	$226.46	-$6.37	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 88.1¢	$211.44	$213.08	+$3.54	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$45.37	$45.5	+$0.12	51% 3690-3541 (7231)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$33.54	$33.53	-$0.01	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$26.08	$26.08	+$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$25.17	$25.17	-$0	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$13.42	$13.4	-$0.02	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$3.64	$12.22	+$8.58	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$9.84	$9.84	-$0	28% 485-1268 (1753)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$4.48	$4.48	-$0.01	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$4.44	$4.43	-$0.01	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$4.39	$4.42	+$0.03	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$3.96	$3.77	-$0.19	51% 258-247 (505)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.59	$3.51	+$1.92	50% 1278-1291 (2569)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,394.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$24.85

Record

56%

15850-12549 (28399)

merod

Invested

$728.28

Value

$725.76

PnL

-$2.52

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

korda77

Invested

$420

Value

$375.84

PnL

-$0.86

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$282.99

Value

$226.46

PnL

-$6.37

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

cigarettes

Invested

$211.44

Value

$213.08

PnL

+$3.54

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$45.37

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

3690-3541 (7231)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$33.54

Value

$33.53

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$26.08

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.17

Value

$25.17

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$8.58

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.19

Record

51%

258-247 (505)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$1.92

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.8%

86.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.