Will Chromagraph Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $496 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$495.98
$15.98
83.2¢ → 92¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 83.7¢ | $381.78 | $419.8 | +$38.02 | — 5-1 (6) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $21.8 | $25.39 | +$3.59 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.74 | $24.16 | +$3.41 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $14 | -$18 | 48% 1225-1315 (2540) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $15.17 | $9.13 | -$6.04 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $8.5 | $3.5 | -$5 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
viniiInvested
$381.78
Value
$419.8
PnL
+$38.02
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$21.8
Value
$25.39
PnL
+$3.59
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$20.74
Value
$24.16
PnL
+$3.41
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$14
PnL
-$18
Record
48%
1225-1315 (2540)
Invested
$15.17
Value
$9.13
PnL
-$6.04
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$5
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.