Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 60¢ · $784 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$783.85
$9.41
57.7¢ → 60¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 58.7¢ | $694.11 | $670.53 | -$5.57 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $46.06 | $56.29 | +$10.23 | 36% 2026-3619 (5645) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.6¢ | $34.6 | $41 | +$6.4 | 61% 20632-13069 (33701) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 64.7¢ | $13.48 | $10.15 | -$0.65 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $6.89 | $5.88 | -$1 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
Invested
$694.11
Value
$670.53
PnL
-$5.57
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$56.29
PnL
+$10.23
Record
36%
2026-3619 (5645)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$34.6
Value
$41
PnL
+$6.4
Record
61%
20632-13069 (33701)
Invested
$13.48
Value
$10.15
PnL
-$0.65
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$1
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.