Will Chris Malachowsky be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $236 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$235.74

Combined PnL

$12.56

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 95¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$235.74

Total Shares231

Combined PnL+$12.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$85.57	$85.57	+$0	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$51.7	$51.74	+$0.04	32% 2904-6246 (9150)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$33.29	$45.4	+$12.11	41% 3167-4511 (7678)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$20.19	$20.64	+$0.45	13% 28-183 (211)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.35	$20.29	-$0.06	43% 791-1038 (1829)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.97	$5.97	+$0	47% 496-559 (1055)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.03	$5.03	+$0	—
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.09	$1.09	+$0.01	26% 1244-3525 (4769)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$85.57

Value

$85.57

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$51.7

Value

$51.74

PnL

+$0.04

Record

32%

2904-6246 (9150)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$33.29

Value

$45.4

PnL

+$12.11

Record

41%

3167-4511 (7678)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$20.19

Value

$20.64

PnL

+$0.45

Record

13%

28-183 (211)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20.35

Value

$20.29

PnL

-$0.06

Record

43%

791-1038 (1829)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.97

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

496-559 (1055)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0

Record

—

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

26%

1244-3525 (4769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.