Will "Choosin Texas – Ella Langley" be the top song in the US for 2026?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 96¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 31

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$55.04

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 96.3¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,079

Combined PnL+$99.6

No7 traders

Total Value$114.2

Total Shares2,039

Combined PnL-$44.56

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

485h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 91.1¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$111.79	62% 368-226 (594)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 90.9¢	$670.31	$461.65	+$2.27	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
Istaroth	Yesavg 92¢	$428.67	$412.19	-$14.38	14% 461-2750 (3211)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 5.9¢	$79.76	$59.05	+$0.3	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 4.6¢	$23.01	$27.74	+$4.73	51% 257-247 (504)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 5.7¢	$17.05	$16.81	-$0.24	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
LornaPredictsCTR	Noavg 5.4¢	$106.65	$4.93	-$43.04	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 94.2¢	$4.71	$4.62	-$0.09	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$4.75	$3.64	-$2.73	25% 751-2290 (3041)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$12.34	$1.68	-$3.87	25% 1718-5214 (6932)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.06	$0.35	+$0.29	44% 6474-8170 (14644)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$7,462.69

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$111.79

Record

62%

368-226 (594)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$670.31

Value

$461.65

PnL

+$2.27

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$428.67

Value

$412.19

PnL

-$14.38

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$79.76

Value

$59.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$23.01

Value

$27.74

PnL

+$4.73

Record

51%

257-247 (504)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$17.05

Value

$16.81

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

LornaPredictsCTR

Invested

$106.65

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$43.04

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$0.09

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$2.73

Record

25%

751-2290 (3041)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$3.87

Record

25%

1718-5214 (6932)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.29

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

485h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.