Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 2.1¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$92.92
-$6.81
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $92.04 | $87 | -$3.46 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.9¢ | $8.28 | $2.64 | -$5.64 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $0.45 | $1.98 | +$1.53 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.1¢ | $0.47 | $0.97 | +$0.5 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $0.08 | $0.33 | +$0.25 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$92.04
Value
$87
PnL
-$3.46
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$5.64
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$1.53
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.5
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.25
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.