Will China’s CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$151.27

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 96.9¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,035

Combined PnL+$121.81

Yes6 traders

Total Value$41.62

Total Shares540

Combined PnL+$29.45

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

445h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 85¢	$406.51	$470.97	+$64.46	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 88.8¢	$206.35	$224.68	+$18.33	53% 8223-7324 (15547)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 77.5¢	$131.7	$167.33	+$35.63	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$78.64	$78.74	+$0.14	14% 461-2750 (3211)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$65.48	$29.53	+$0.18	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.57	$29.06	-$0.52	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$90.05	$22.65	-$2.9	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18.09	$16.53	+$2.94	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$14.35	$15.4	+$1.06	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 76¢	$2.19	$2.84	+$0.65	31% 3472-7762 (11234)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$9.78	$1.62	-$3.37	40% 283-428 (711)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$42.6	$0.92	+$34.82	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$1.06	$0.88	-$0.17	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$17.93	$0.14	+$0.03	41% 1183-1676 (2859)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$406.51

Value

$470.97

PnL

+$64.46

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$206.35

Value

$224.68

PnL

+$18.33

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$131.7

Value

$167.33

PnL

+$35.63

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$78.64

Value

$78.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$65.48

Value

$29.53

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.57

Value

$29.06

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.05

Value

$22.65

PnL

-$2.9

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$18.09

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$2.94

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.35

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$1.06

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.65

Record

31%

3472-7762 (11234)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.78

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$3.37

Record

40%

283-428 (711)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.6

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$34.82

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.17

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.93

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

445h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.