Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 50¢ · $414 held · ends Jan 10, 2027

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sun, Jan 10, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$413.8

Combined PnL

$51.43

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$303.86

Total Shares614

Combined PnL+$65.82

Yes3 traders

Total Value$109.94

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$14.38

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$238.04	$303.86	+$65.82	— 4-15 (19)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$63.51	$57.07	-$6.45	17% 10-48 (58)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$46.17	$40.75	-$5.42	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$14.64	$12.12	-$2.52	— 1-9 (10)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Invested

$238.04

Value

$303.86

PnL

+$65.82

Record

—

4-15 (19)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.51

Value

$57.07

PnL

-$6.45

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.17

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$5.42

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.64

Value

$12.12

PnL

-$2.52

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.