Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $44 held · ends Jan 10, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Jan 10, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$44

Combined PnL

-$17.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$40.88

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.67

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.22

Total Shares467

Combined PnL-$18.22

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$30.23	$30.91	+$0.68	61% 20778-13190 (33968)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.98	-$0	77% 11143-3403 (14546)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$73.91	$2.49	+$6.59	36% 15021-27071 (42092)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$9.23	$0.39	-$8.84	41% 1956-2764 (4720)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$16.31	$0.34	-$15.97	40% 9441-14114 (23555)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30.23

Value

$30.91

PnL

+$0.68

Record

61%

20778-13190 (33968)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0

Record

77%

11143-3403 (14546)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.91

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$6.59

Record

36%

15021-27071 (42092)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.23

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$8.84

Record

41%

1956-2764 (4720)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.31

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$15.97

Record

40%

9441-14114 (23555)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.0%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3246.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

3346.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.