Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$96.89

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.1¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,535

Combined PnL-$87.43

Yes5 traders

Total Value$17.45

Total Shares2,052

Combined PnL-$9.46

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

183 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$4.35	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 99¢	$5.2K	$1.2K	-$97.3	42% 10352-14389 (24741)
KO korda77	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.48	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
ME merod	Noavg 99¢	$260.54	$260.91	+$0.38	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$86.58	$87.25	+$0.68	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$11.89	$11.23	-$0.66	70% 1135-483 (1618)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$9.93	$9.92	-$0.01	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.35	$9.35	-$0	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$5.5	$3.74	-$1.75	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$15.49	$2.22	-$13.27	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$110.33	$0.23	+$5.66	36% 2018-3600 (5618)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$9.46	$0.02	+$0.56	45% 3684-4416 (8100)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,809.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$4.35

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

influenz.eth

Invested

$5,204.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$97.3

Record

42%

10352-14389 (24741)

korda77

Invested

$1,071.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.48

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

merod

Invested

$260.54

Value

$260.91

PnL

+$0.38

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$86.58

Value

$87.25

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.89

Value

$11.23

PnL

-$0.66

Record

70%

1135-483 (1618)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$1.75

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.49

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$13.27

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.33

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$5.66

Record

36%

2018-3600 (5618)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.56

Record

45%

3684-4416 (8100)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

1581h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

183 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.