Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$3.22

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,189

Combined PnL+$4.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.98

Total Shares791

Combined PnL-$1.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$2.74	46% 2738-3275 (6013)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.2K	$1.2K	+$5.15	42% 9929-13841 (23770)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.56	52% 4911-4508 (9419)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$66.35	$69.83	+$3.48	61% 20619-13064 (33683)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.05	$1.31	+$0.26	77% 11126-3391 (14517)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.97	$0.61	-$1.36	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.05	$0.04	-$0.01	18% 3780-17066 (20846)
VI VictornixCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	13% 67-438 (505)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,827.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$2.74

Record

46%

2738-3275 (6013)

influenz.eth

Invested

$5,234.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$5.15

Record

42%

9929-13841 (23770)

korda77

Invested

$1,040.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$1.56

Record

52%

4911-4508 (9419)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$66.35

Value

$69.83

PnL

+$3.48

Record

61%

20619-13064 (33683)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.26

Record

77%

11126-3391 (14517)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$1.36

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

18%

3780-17066 (20846)

VictornixCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

13%

67-438 (505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.