Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$153.12

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,002

Combined PnL-$112.71

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$40.41

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0.91	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.4K	$1.4K	-$102.16	42% 10359-14389 (24748)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.9¢	$716.78	$717.14	+$0.36	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$63.24	$51.42	-$11.82	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0.01	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$8.08	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yes	$145.79	$0.01	-$32.28	36% 2021-3600 (5621)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$0.06	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	+$0	49% 8853-9359 (18212)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,827.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.91

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

influenz.eth

Invested

$5,398.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$102.16

Record

42%

10359-14389 (24748)

korda77

Invested

$716.78

Value

$717.14

PnL

+$0.36

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$63.24

Value

$51.42

PnL

-$11.82

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.08

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.79

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$32.28

Record

36%

2021-3600 (5621)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.